← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 63% | 64% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 16% | 3.80 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 13% | 20% | 8.50 | value: +67% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4331.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1425.65 | 1723.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.97 | 29.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| league points | 37.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.88 |
| state index | -0.34 | 1.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |