← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 39% | 45% | 2.50 | value: +12% |
| FC Utrecht win | 33% | 23% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1774.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1414.65 | 1508.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.89 | -22.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |