← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 44% | 58% | 2.15 | value: +26% |
| NAC Breda win | 29% | 19% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2413.00 | 3235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1564.81 | 1491.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.86 | -48.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 53.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.36 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |