← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 39% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 34% | 39% | 2.88 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 7618.00 | 3417.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1377.54 | 1527.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.45 | 50.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.30 |
| state index | -1.06 | 0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |