← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 49% | 53% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 25% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1409.00 | 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1703.82 | 1620.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.20 | -19.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 77.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.82 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |