← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 55% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| Heracles win | 18% | 21% | 5.00 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3410.00 | 1767.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1521.57 | 1420.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.58 | 2.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |