← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 37% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 35% | 29% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1508.71 | 1574.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.42 | 22.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 42.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |