← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 63% | 56% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +7% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 14% | 17% | 7.00 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2133.00 | 1037.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1411.69 | 1713.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.80 | 3.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| league points | 31.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 2.03 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |