← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 72% | 74% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
| NEC win | 10% | 7% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1729.77 | 1520.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.28 | -22.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 61.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.25 |
| state index | 1.62 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |