← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 68% | 66% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +10% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 12% | 9% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 306.00 | 7611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1654.98 | 1390.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.92 | -28.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| league points | 59.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 0.88 |
| state index | 0.27 | -1.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |