← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 44% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3403.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1503.70 | 1526.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.85 | -13.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 37.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |