← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 64% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 12% | 11% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2399.00 | 4317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1561.62 | 1407.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.80 | 10.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 49.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.06 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |