← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 49% | 45% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| AZ win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1030.00 | 1395.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1715.56 | 1718.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.89 | -7.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| league points | 64.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 2.45 |
| state index | 1.27 | 1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |