← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 57% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 15% | 3.60 | fair |
| Heracles win | 18% | 23% | 5.00 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1759.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1426.42 | 1723.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.69 | 22.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| league points | 31.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.87 |
| state index | -0.34 | 1.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |