← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 37% | 41% | 2.50 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 35% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 298.00 | 298.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1627.84 | 1691.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.27 | -0.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| league points | 58.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 2.10 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |