← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 40% | 50% | 2.30 | value: +14% |
| AFC Ajax win | 33% | 31% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1023.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1749.06 | 1766.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.29 | 16.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 55.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 2.13 |
| state index | 1.24 | 1.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |