← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 77% | 78% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 8% | 6% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1387.00 | 3395.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1735.22 | 1486.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.39 | -25.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| league points | 76.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.53 | 1.13 |
| state index | 1.37 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |