← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 57% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | value: +4% |
| Vitesse win | 18% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2385.00 | 3389.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1568.92 | 1472.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.16 | -37.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 46.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.07 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |