← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 66% | 66% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +6% |
| Heracles win | 12% | 9% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 285.00 | 1746.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1545.78 | 1414.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.80 | 4.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| league points | 35.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.97 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |