← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 67% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.50 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 11% | 10% | 11.00 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1700.74 | 1520.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.78 | -31.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 52.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.34 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |