← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Fri, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 54% | 63% | 1.73 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 21% | 14% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3205.00 | 1379.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1521.31 | 1729.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.79 | 19.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 42.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 2.52 |
| state index | -0.16 | 1.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |