← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 58% | 52% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 17% | 20% | 5.50 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1374.00 | 1009.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1443.74 | 1723.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.73 | 22.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 25.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 2.07 |
| state index | -0.09 | 1.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |