← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 40% | 35% | 2.30 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 33% | 24% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 41% | 3.30 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2377.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1531.72 | 1557.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.25 | -19.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.54 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |