← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 78% | 82% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 6.50 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 7% | 6% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1373.00 | 7582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1726.02 | 1387.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.00 | 20.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| league points | 70.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.96 |
| state index | 1.37 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |