← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 48% | 42% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 25% | 35% | 3.60 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3186.00 | 995.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1552.52 | 1710.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.30 | 16.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 42.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 2.04 |
| state index | 0.51 | 1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |