← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 44% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
| Heracles win | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2090.00 | 1724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1416.49 | 1418.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.31 | -5.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| league points | 24.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.00 |
| state index | -1.24 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |