← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 67% | 77% | 1.36 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 22% | 15% | 4.33 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 11% | 7% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 3367.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1688.49 | 1481.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.85 | -15.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 46.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.11 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |