← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 49% | 45% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 24% | 34% | 4.00 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1539.65 | 1725.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.79 | 28.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| league points | 38.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 2.54 |
| state index | -0.13 | 1.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |