← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 47% | 54% | 1.95 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 26% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3360.00 | 3178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1500.86 | 1533.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.50 | -9.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 30.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.50 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |