← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 49% | 53% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Volendam win | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1717.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1419.73 | 1422.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.66 | 2.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |