← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 52% | 47% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| NEC win | 22% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1574.70 | 1717.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.08 | 23.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.70 |
| league points | 36.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.52 |
| state index | 0.12 | 1.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |