← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 62% | 74% | 1.45 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.00 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 14% | 11% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 7555.00 | 981.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1387.98 | 1750.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.10 | -16.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| league points | 23.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 2.04 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |