← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Fri, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 52% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 23% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2075.00 | 4266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1435.33 | 1384.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.44 | -53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.64 | -1.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |