← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 42% | 42% | 2.20 | fair |
| Volendam win | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1408.29 | 1577.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.54 | 10.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 15.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |