← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 45% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 28% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 974.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1551.98 | 1703.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.22 | -40.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 37.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |