← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 73% | 86% | 1.25 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 18% | 10% | 5.00 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 9% | 4% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 243.00 | 7548.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1690.69 | 1370.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.12 | -4.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| league points | 51.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 0.96 |
| state index | 1.04 | -0.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |