← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Fri, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 56% | 59% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 18% | 3.75 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 18% | 23% | 5.25 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1713.52 | 1639.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.63 | 14.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| league points | 45.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| state index | 1.35 | 0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |