← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 84% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 6.50 | fair |
| Volendam win | 7% | 4% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 967.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1700.94 | 1410.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -56.94 | -4.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 45.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 0.65 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |