← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 60% | 58% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
| Heracles win | 15% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1696.00 | 1331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1416.66 | 1703.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.11 | 20.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.48 |
| state index | -0.93 | 1.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |