← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 40% | 45% | 2.25 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 33% | 35% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2335.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1577.14 | 1705.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.83 | 10.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 40.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.83 |
| state index | 0.75 | 1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |