← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Fri, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 53% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 21% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3338.00 | 1330.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1497.91 | 1442.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 60.18 | -16.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.78 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |