← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 37% | 45% | 2.50 | value: +12% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 35% | 31% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2056.00 | 3333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1449.80 | 1497.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.05 | 56.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |