← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 37% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
| NEC win | 35% | 39% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1559.30 | 1635.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.89 | 26.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| league points | 31.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.86 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |