← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 67% | 72% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
| Heracles win | 12% | 11% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2329.00 | 1690.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1570.14 | 1423.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.98 | -6.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| league points | 37.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |