← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 44% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +7% |
| Roda JC win | 28% | 20% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3150.00 | 1324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1534.22 | 1448.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.36 | -5.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 32.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.82 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |