← Eredivisie 2008-09 · Sun, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 62% | 74% | 1.50 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 3.80 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 14% | 8% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 7527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1552.45 | 1364.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.21 | -0.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| league points | 31.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 0.90 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |