← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 50% | 62% | 1.83 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 28% | 17% | 3.30 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3032.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1473.04 | 1727.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.85 | 0.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| league points | 43.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 2.09 |
| state index | -0.20 | 1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |