← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 65% | 74% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 12% | 6% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 659.00 | 3946.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1647.88 | 1438.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.66 | 20.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 59.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.94 |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |