← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 56% | 64% | 1.61 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 19% | 9% | 4.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1024.00 | 1755.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1554.30 | 1441.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.89 | 10.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 40.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |