← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 76% | 75% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 22% | 6.50 | value: +45% |
| Heracles win | 8% | 2% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 659.00 | 1389.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1724.50 | 1419.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.78 | -16.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 66.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.97 |
| state index | 1.40 | -0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |